A Potential Malthusian Catastrophe Ahead
A Potential Malthusian Catastrophe Ahead
  • Reporter Kim San
  • 승인 2024.02.03 15:03
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▲The number and duration of droughts has risen 29% since 2000, UN says / United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
▲The number and duration of droughts has risen 29% since 2000, UN says / United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

  Despite the cutting-edge technological advancements we boast to have achieved, the global food chain is still as vulnerable as ever, especially during periods of conflict. There are as many as 700 million people undernourished in corners of the world where not enough attention is given. The problem, of course, is in the distribution of wealth and is not so much in the deficit of overall agricultural output. In fact, the agricultural sector in 2018 produced so much food that, if evenly distributed, each person would be allowed to consume 2900 kcal per day, which is above the recommended intake for an average adult.
  The obvious fact is that food security is at the heart of our very livelihoods as it is the most vital and primitive need to sustain human life. Although a number of reports warn about the global food chain being under threat, this appears as a distant issue to citizens of affluent nations, and it is true but only to an extent after which it is no longer. Empirical data shows that underdeveloped nations are initially most affected by climate change until sooner or later its effects are felt in all nations of the world both rich and poor alike. Seeing as climate change and food security go hand-in-hand, the impacts of food security will inevitably be felt by everyone around the world. This is, therefore, “our” problem as much as “theirs.”
  There are four pillars to food security: availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability. If all four are not met, a person is considered to be in a food insecure state. This is, in fact, a strict definition according to which many modern-day humans in a wealthy society may not even qualify, albeit for a reason different from those suffering from the lack of food – people are simply too busy to eat. But, of course, skipping a meal due to a meeting running overtime pales in comparison to skipping a meal because the food products are unavailable and inaccessible. Russia’s decision to terminate the Black Sea grain deal is one such example that takes a toll on the global food chain, especially in nations where famine is already a severe issue. 
  The initiative was brokered in July 2022 by the United Nations (UN) and Türkiye which supplied more than 32 million metric tons of Ukrainian agricultural goods to the rest of the world. The Black Sea grain deal has helped reduce more than 23% of global food prices. Despite Russia’s plan to supply free grains to six African nations, the UN secretary general, António Guterres, said a “handful of donations to some countries cannot replace the Black Sea deal.” Last year, Ukraine exported billions of dollars worth of grain via the Black Sea and, by blocking the route, Russia intended to cut out Ukraine from the global market and their monetary gain.
  The global food supply chain is like a closely interwoven web of networks maintaining a fragile balance by the tension of opposites – the series of pushes and pulls. Even the smallest of disruptions can have profound impacts all over the world. A geopolitical disruption, however, is only a small part of a larger problem as climate change represents a more threatening issue. A recent survey on climate change and food security by the Food and Agriculture Organization observed that climate change has already negatively affected wheat and maize yields in many regions, as well as globally.