There is no new discovery in the recently published United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report; rather, it is the sheer certainty that reinforces the dire threat of the climate crisis. This 4,000-page report lays out piles of evidence obtained from both observed and simulated data that show the devastating trends of global temperature, precipitation, drought, etc. Unsurprisingly, the data points to anthropogenic factors as the main driving force. It is a “Code Red for humanity … the evidence is irrefutable … greenhouse gas emission and deforestation are choking our planet, putting billions of lives at risk,” said António Guterres, UN secretary-general.
The goal is to keep the global temperature increase within 1.5℃ compared to pre-industrial levels; although a 2℃ limit is a more achievable goal to achieve given the current circumstances.
To put into perspective, an overall increase of 1.5℃ would nevertheless be catastrophic but tolerable; going 2℃ or above would be apocalyptic. According to the Guardian’s article, “Extreme heatwaves expected once every 50 years without any global heating are already happening every decade. With 1.5℃ warming, these will happen about every 5 years; with 2℃, every 3.5 years; and with 4℃, every 15 months.”
Humanity has already increased the global temperature by 1℃, which puts everything into a tight schedule to meet the climate goal. Due to humanity’s prolonged inaction, it is now inevitable that the global temperature increase will exceed 1.5​​℃ by 2040 even if the best-case scenario is realized, according to the report’s prediction. Furthermore, “2℃ will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reduction in greenhouse gases occurs in the coming decades.” The empirical data shows that humanity has released 2,400 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide since 1850, which leaves room for only another 400 billion tonnes before the 1.5℃ goal is unreachable.
It is extremely appalling that, according to the Climate Action Tracker, practically all of the affluent countries’ climate responses, including South Korea’s, are highly insufficient. If the current trend is sustained, the Earth is looking to heat 4℃ or above. Now, it is for the legislators of 197 nations participating at the upcoming COP26 UN Climate Conference in November to come up with a revised climate treaty that will, pave the way for the future of humanity.